U.S. online holiday shopping expected to hit a record $253 billion

U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $253.4 billion online this holiday season, according to Adobe’s annual shopping forecast, released today. That’s a 5.3% year-over-year increase covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025.

Adobe’s analysis, based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories, suggests that this year’s season will be shaped by the dominance of mobile shopping, flexible payment options and the growing influence of generative AI and social platforms on consumer behavior.

Cyber Week to drive nearly a fifth of spend: Adobe expects 10 separate days where online spending will top $5 billion. Cyber Week—the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—will account for $43.7 billion, or 17.2% of the season’s total, up 6.3% YoY.

• Cyber Monday remains the single biggest day at $14.2 billion (+6.3% YoY).
• Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, up 8.3% YoY to $11.7 billion.
• Thanksgiving Day spending will hit $6.4 billion (+4.9% YoY).

Mobile overtakes desktop shopping: For the first time, mobile devices will drive the majority of online holiday spend, capturing 56.1% ($142.7 billion). That’s up 8.5% YoY and a dramatic shift from 2020, when mobile accounted for just 40% of holiday ecommerce.

Buy Now, Pay Later expands share: Consumers continue to embrace Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) for budget flexibility. Adobe projects BNPL purchases to reach $20.2 billion this season (+11% YoY), including more than $1 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Notably, nearly 80% of BNPL transactions are expected to come from mobile devices.

Discounting drives higher-ticket purchases: Discounting will remain aggressive, with deals peaking during Cyber Week:

• Electronics: up to 28% off
• Toys: 27%
• Apparel: 25%

Adobe notes a “trade-up effect,” with shoppers using discounts to purchase higher-end items. The share of units sold from premium products is expected to jump in sporting goods (+56%), electronics (+52%), and appliances (+39%).

Electronics, apparel, and home goods lead: More than half of all online spending will be concentrated in three categories:

• Electronics: $57.5B (+4% YoY)
• Apparel: $47.6B (+4.4% YoY)
• Furniture: $31.1B (+6.5% YoY)

Smaller but fast-growing categories include groceries (+9.2% YoY) and cosmetics (+9.1% YoY).

Adobe also projects surging demand for home improvement, health tech and gaming. Sales of activity trackers are expected to rise 1,055%, smartwatches 950% and gaming consoles 1,040% versus baseline spending earlier this year.

Hot sellers include the Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler and trending toys like Disney Stitch Puppetronic and Labubu Dolls.

AI and social media reshape discovery: Adobe highlights two significant shifts in how consumers are finding products:

• Generative AI traffic to retail sites is forecast to rise 520% YoY, following a 1,300% surge last year. Shoppers are turning to AI tools for research (53%), product recommendations (40%), deal-finding (36%) and gift inspiration (30%).
• Social media influence on ecommerce is expected to jump 51% YoY, with affiliate and influencer-driven sales also growing 14%.

The bottom line

Adobe’s forecast underscores the continued strength of U.S. ecommerce and signals how consumer behavior is shifting toward mobile-first, AI-assisted,and socially influenced shopping. While aggressive discounting will fuel sales, the bigger story may be how emerging technologies shape the path to purchase during the 2025 holiday season.

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