Scientists fear the Atlantic’s great ocean conveyor could shut down

A new study projects that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—the system of currents that includes the Gulf Stream—could shut down after 2100 under high-emission scenarios. This shutdown would drastically reduce heat transport northward, leaving Europe vulnerable to extreme winters, summers of drying, and shifts in tropical rainfall. Climate models show the tipping point is linked to collapsing winter convection in the North Atlantic, which weakens vertical mixing and creates a feedback loop that accelerates decline.

Updates Sep 2, 2025 0 52 Add to Reading List

Scientists fear the Atlantic’s great ocean conveyor could shut down

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A new study projects that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—the system of currents that includes the Gulf Stream—could shut down after 2100 under high-emission scenarios. This shutdown would drastically reduce heat transport northward, leaving Europe vulnerable to extreme winters, summers of drying, and shifts in tropical rainfall. Climate models show the tipping point is linked to collapsing winter convection in the North Atlantic, which weakens vertical mixing and creates a feedback loop that accelerates decline.

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