Ajaokuta Could Add $115bn to Nigeria’s GDP, Create 70,000 Jobs if Privatised — Economist

A renowned economist and former Senior Special Adviser to the President of the African Development Bank on Industrialisation, Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, has said Nigeria could unlock up to $115 billion in additional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and create about 70,000 jobs if the long-dormant Ajaokuta Steel Company is revived through privatisation.

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka made the assertion while delivering a keynote address at a virtual international conference titled “The Ajaokuta Phenomenon in Tinubu’s Era: A Turning Point or Another Missed Opportunity?” organised by the Coalition for the Revival of Ajaokuta.

In a statement issued on Friday, the economist described the steel complex as pivotal to Nigeria’s industrial transformation, noting that revitalising the facility could significantly boost economic growth and reduce pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

“This keynote slide tells the story in three numbers — $115 billion in GDP gain, $9.1 billion in foreign exchange savings, and 70,000 jobs created,” he said.

“These are not just statistics; they represent growth, stability and opportunity for millions of Nigerians. Reviving Ajaokuta is not about steel alone — it is about reclaiming our economic sovereignty, empowering our youth, and building the foundation of a self-reliant industrial future.”

Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, a Fellow of the The Open University in the United Kingdom, urged the Federal Government to urgently privatise the steel complex, arguing that decades of public ownership and management have failed to deliver results.

“The time for hesitation has passed. The time for decisive action is now. Public ownership and management of steel should end,” he declared.

According to him, the most viable pathway to reviving the plant is to allow a capable Nigerian consortium to take majority ownership, supported by foreign technical partners with proven experience in operating steel plants.

“My specific recommendation is to allow a capable Nigerian group or consortium to take majority ownership, with foreign partners that have a proven record of operating steel plants,” he said.

He cited the transformation of POSCO in South Korea as a successful example of how strategic reforms and private sector participation can build a globally competitive steel industry.

The economist described the Ajaokuta project as a “monumental white elephant,” lamenting that despite billions of dollars invested since the 1970s, the plant has failed to produce steel at industrial scale.

“We invested between $6 billion and $10 billion, yet decades later Ajaokuta remains idle — a monument to unrealised potential,” he said.

Nigeria currently imports roughly $4 billion worth of steel annually, he noted, a situation that continues to strain foreign exchange reserves and limit the country’s industrial development.

“A country of over 200 million people without primary steel production is a travesty,” Oyelaran-Oyeyinka added.

He further warned that if entrenched interests frustrate privatisation efforts, Nigeria should consider a private-sector-led alternative similar to the model that produced the Dangote Refinery.

“If rent-seekers will not allow it, I repeat, let us find the Dangote Refinery solution to the challenge of primary steel production,” he said.

According to him, reviving Ajaokuta would enable Nigeria to produce about 1.3 million tonnes of steel annually, positioning the country to catch up with peer economies that leveraged steel production to industrialise.

“Let us choose progress over paralysis, action over hesitation, and transformation over dependence. The time to revive Ajaokuta is now — for growth, for savings, and for jobs,” he said.

Other panellists at the conference echoed concerns about the long-standing challenges that have plagued the project.
A professor at Federal University of Technology Minna, Oladiran Abubakare, attributed the failure of the steel plant largely to corruption and poor governance.

“The problem with Ajaokuta is corruption — a company that produced more ministers than producing steel,” he said, urging stakeholders to closely monitor any future agreements to avoid repeating past errors.

Similarly, policy analyst Collins Nweke described Ajaokuta as Nigeria’s “most enduring industrial paradox.”
“A project that reached about 98 per cent completion has never produced steel at industrial scale after more than four decades,” he said.

Nweke acknowledged renewed interest by the administration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu in resolving the long-standing stalemate but stressed that implementation, rather than policy declarations, would determine success.

“Ajaokuta does not fail for lack of plans; it fails at the point of execution,” he said.

The session was moderated by Mohamad Attah of the Coalition for the Revival of Ajaokuta, with other panellists including Dele Ajayi-Smith and Clifford Thomas.