World Bank Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.3%, Projects 4.4% in 2027–28

The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from 4.0 per cent in 2025, and projected further growth of 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

The projection is contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 *Africa Economic Update*, released on Tuesday, which said Nigeria was among several Sub-Saharan African economies whose growth forecasts were upgraded amid improving macroeconomic conditions and reforms.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s economic activity is expected to strengthen on the back of improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.

The lender said growth forecasts had been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of Sub-Saharan African countries, including Nigeria, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia, reflecting the impact of reforms and improved economic management.

The World Bank’s latest assessment also raised its overall growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 per cent in 2026, from 4.1 per cent in its April projection. The region’s growth is projected to rise from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.3 per cent in 2026.

World Bank Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said the region had continued to demonstrate resilience despite geopolitical tensions, climate shocks, declining development assistance and fiscal pressures.

He, however, cautioned that the projected growth rate remained insufficient to substantially reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs for the region’s rapidly expanding labour force.

The upgraded outlook comes against the backdrop of stronger-than-expected recent economic activity in Nigeria.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product expanded by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. The NBS has published the Q2 2026 GDP report as part of its national accounts releases.

The latest World Bank projection suggests that the lender expects the momentum to be sustained beyond 2026, with Nigeria’s growth reaching 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.

The improved forecast comes as Nigeria continues to implement reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and improving conditions for private-sector investment.

The World Bank’s broader regional assessment said stronger domestic demand, increased investment linked to the global energy transition and digital technologies were supporting economic activity across Sub-Saharan Africa.

Beyond the immediate growth outlook, the World Bank has called on African countries to build the foundations for artificial intelligence adoption as a means of increasing productivity, creating employment opportunities and accelerating structural transformation.

The October 2026 *Africa Economic Update*, titled *Building AI-Readiness*, argues that investments in the infrastructure, skills and institutions required for AI could help African economies convert technological advances into higher productivity and better employment opportunities.

For Nigeria, the upgraded growth forecast provides a more positive medium-term outlook, although the World Bank’s assessment also underscores the need to ensure that economic expansion translates into stronger job creation, higher productivity and improved living standards.

The latest projection therefore places Nigeria among the African economies benefiting from improved growth expectations, while highlighting the need for continued reforms and investment to sustain the expansion.