Ruto Tops Western Kenya as Matiang’i and Natembeya Close In – Infotrak

President William Ruto has taken an early lead in the 2027 presidential race in Western Kenya, according to a new opinion poll released on Thursday by research firm Infotrak.

The survey shows President Ruto commanding 25 per cent voter support across the region, placing him ahead of a crowded field of potential contenders. Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i followed in second place with 15 per cent, while Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya ranked third at 13 per cent.

Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka secured eight per cent support, as Embakasi East MP Babu Owino trailed with three per cent. Other aspirants, including Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, and former Chief Justice David Maraga, each posted two per cent. PLP leader Martha Karua recorded 0.5 per cent.

The poll further revealed that five per cent of respondents declined to state their preferred candidate, while a significant 25 per cent remained undecided.

Infotrak conducted the survey using Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI), targeting registered voters aged 18 and above. The study achieved a 100 per cent response rate and carries a margin of error of ±4 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level. Analysts processed the data using SPSS 27.

Beyond presidential preference, the survey also examined the influence of key Luhya political figures in Western Kenya, revealing shifting power dynamics within the region.

Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya emerged as the most influential leader among the Abaluhya community, with 50 per cent of respondents identifying him as the most powerful voice in regional politics. His influence was most pronounced in Trans Nzoia County, where 70 per cent of respondents said he held the greatest sway.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi ranked second at 32 per cent, recording his strongest showing in Vihiga County at 45 per cent.

ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna placed third with 31 per cent support, enjoying overwhelming backing in Busia County, where 52 per cent of respondents identified him as the most influential leader. National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula followed closely in fourth position at 29 per cent, dominating in Bungoma County with 39 per cent support.

Other leaders lagged behind, including former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya at 14 per cent, DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa at 13 per cent, and former Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala at 10 per cent. Several additional figures posted single-digit influence scores, while 17 per cent of respondents declined to name any leader.

Researchers conducted the poll on December 29, 2025, sampling 600 respondents across Vihiga, Busia, Kakamega, Bungoma, and Trans Nzoia counties. The study used proportional distribution to ensure a representative sample of voters aged 18 and above and carries the same ±4 per cent margin of error at a 95 per cent confidence level.

Political analysts say the findings point to a highly competitive and evolving political landscape in Western Kenya. While President Ruto currently leads voter preference in the Mulembe Nation, Natembeya’s strong grassroots influence among Luhya leaders highlights shifting alliances and growing complexity as parties and candidates position themselves ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

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