Prediction Market ‘Opinion’ Outshines Kalshi, Polymarket: Is It Worthy?

The YZi Labs-backed prediction market platform ‘Opinion’ has taken the lead in trading volume, surpassing longtime competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket. On October 13, Opinion accounted for 48.6% of total market activity while Kalshi followed with a 25.8% share.

Polymarket, previously the market leader, held 23.2%. Smaller platforms like Myriad and Limitless make up only tiny portions, at 1.8% and 0.6%, respectively. 

Abhi, the founder of AP Collective, noted that the volume is most probably derived through  wash-trading, raising questions about whether the numbers truly reflect real trading activity.

Opinion, supported by Binance founder Changpend Zhao’s YZi Labs, is gaining attention as interest in prediction markets grows. These platforms let people “buy and sell” shares that represent what might happen in the future. While Polymarket and Kalshi have been leading this landscape, Opinion’s rapid rise has raised questions whether its rise is sustainable or even real at all. 

Rapid Growth and Activity Spikes

Data from a Dune dashboard, created by Kucoin Ventures, shows a sudden spike in daily trading on Opinion. On October 31, total trading volume on the platform reached $157 million. As a result, total trading since then passed $600 million by early November. This jump indicates more users are participating and that the platform’s markets are becoming more active.

The national volume charts for Opinion also show a similar pattern. On peak days, daily trading topped $200 million, and total trading approached $500 million by November 3. Besides higher volumes, the amount of open interest—money tied up in active trades—also rose sharply. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion saw more activity, highlighting growing competition in the market.

Polymarket and Kalshi’s Dominating Position

Polymarket used to dominate open interest, often holding over 70% of active trades. But in 2025, Kalshi gradually gained ground, bringing its shares closer to even. At the same time, smaller platforms like Myriad, Limitless, and Opinion began seeing more activity, showing that the market is becoming more diverse and competitive.

Even though Opinion appears to be leading, many in the industry remain cautious. DeFi Warhol pointed out on X that its trading patterns looked unusual: “Decreasing transactions while increasing volume > 10x volume volatility day over day > Inorganic fee structure. It seems like obvious volume manipulation to me.”

Anatoli Kopadze also shared his doubts about the hype: “I don’t think this hype will last long. But a real reputation like Polymarket’s… will live on for a long time.” 

The Increasing Attention on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets show what large groups of people think will happen. When many users trade on outcomes, the resulting prices often reflect real probabilities. These platforms reveal patterns in public sentiment and highlight which events the crowd views as likely or unlikely.

Recent activity in the sector shows rising engagement, especially in crypto and DeFi circles. New platforms like Opinion are attracting attention, but spikes in volume raise questions about how genuine the activity is. 

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