“Hatuwezi Kurudi Opposition”: ODM Leaders Split on Strategy Ahead of 2027 Elections

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) marked its 20th anniversary in Mombasa with a charged celebration that exposed shifting political undercurrents within the party as it prepares for the 2027 General Election. Leaders used the platform to outline competing visions for ODM’s future, highlighting internal debates about strategy, unity and the party’s relationship with the current administration.

During the event held on Saturday, ODM party leader Dr. Oburu Oginga reiterated that the party would, for now, remain part of the broad-based government arrangement that Raila Odinga endorsed before leaving to serve at the African Union Commission. He, however, made it clear that ODM’s path heading into 2027 remains open and will ultimately be decided by its members.

Dr. Oburu assured supporters that the party would stay united, saying he intends to continue defending ODM’s legacy in the spirit Raila would have wanted. He defended his loyalty to Raila, stressing that he had never betrayed him despite what critics may claim.

“Mimi najua hakuna siku moja nimewahi kusaliti ndugu yangu, Raila Amollo Odinga. Lakini ninajua kuna wenzangu wengine wanasema wako na Raila kwa dhati lakini wakati mwingine walikuwa wamesaliti Raila. Mimi ni mkubwa wa Raila, lakini tuliendelea pamoja, mimi nikimpa heshima kwa siasa, lakini nyumbani kwa Jaramogi mwenyewe mimi ndo mwenyekiti yake,” he said.

He added: “Kiti ambacho mmenipa, nitaendelea vile Raila alikuwa anataka na sitakuwa na uoga wowote… Sisi tumesema ikifika 2027 tutaangalia ni nani tutaongea na yeye ama tutaenda peke yetu. We don’t cross the bridge until we reach the bridge.”

Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati backed Dr. Oburu’s stance, urging ODM to drop divisive political tags such as “one-term” (wantam) and “two-term” (tutam) as part of its effort to consolidate strength ahead of the next election. He warned that the party would not tolerate disruptive elements seeking to undermine its stability.

“Mtu yeyote asiseme kwamba chama kitasambaratika, wewe ukitaka kusambaratisha chama tutakusambaratisha wewe mwenyewe,” Arati declared.

He maintained that ODM would honour its commitment to the broad-based government until 2027 but insisted that the party must secure a place in the country’s leadership thereafter.

“Tumesema ndio tuko na mkataba na broad-based government mpaka 2027, mambo mengine tutayapanga tukielekea mbele. Kwa sasa, tutamwuliza mheshimiwa Ruto, the 10-point agenda, tafadhali tuhakikishe itekelezwe. Tujipange 2027, lazime tuwe katika meza ya uongozi wa nchi hii. Hatuwezi tena kurudi katika opposition,” he said.

Joho Warns Against Being ‘Sacrificial Lamb’

Yet beneath the calls for unity, internal rifts surfaced as other senior members expressed frustration over perceived attempts to sideline long-serving party figures. Mining and Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho delivered one of the most fiery addresses of the day, warning those allegedly plotting to edge him out of ODM. He reminded the crowd of his unwavering loyalty and sacrifices for the movement.

“I’m a founding member of ODM, and I must say I defended my party kwa damu, kwa nguvu, kwa hali, kama ni noma noma na kama ni mbaya mbaya. ODM is what it is because some of us tulijitolea kama ilikuwa mbaya mbaya,” Joho said passionately.

He cautioned against treating veteran members as expendable: “It is important that we defend the party, na mimi nawaambia msifikirie mtatutoa chambo, msifikirie mtatutoa kafara, sisi wengine damu yetu ni moto, ukileta twaleta, ukitukujia tunakukujia, ukileta noma noma, ukileta mbaya mbaya, tuelewane namna hiyo.”

Joho added that he had followed ODM since his youth and would not allow anyone to turn him into a political casualty.

“”I did not sacrifice my life for nothing to follow the party ODM. Sijawai fuata mtu mwingine. In my 20s, I joined a movement led by Raila Odinga and let me say mkinifukuza nitawafukuza, mkinikujia nitawakujia, kikiharibika iharibike, kama ni mbaya mbaya. Hatuwezi kuwa sacrificial lamb, huwezi kututumia mnavyotaka alafu mtutupe.”

Winnie, Sifuna and Babu Push for People-Led Decision-Making in ODM

In contrast, a different faction led by Winnie Odinga, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino argued that the party’s direction should be determined by the people rather than a select group of leaders.

Winnie, who also serves as an EALA MP, argued that ODM only trusted Raila to manage the broad-based arrangement and questioned whether those assuming the role were capable.

“When it came to the matter of broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person, who is Raila. That relationship is complicated and therefore, we’re wondering if those who are taking it upon themselves to manage are capable?” she posed.

“That’s a question for the people to answer… That’s why I’m requesting we go back to the people and have an NDC and see who the people want to pick to manage that relationship,” she said.

Sifuna supported this call for grassroots involvement: “Kuna swali moja ama mbili ambayo tuna mitazamo tofauti… na ile kitu mtaamua, sisi wanaODM tutafuata.”

Babu Owino took a more activist stance, insisting ODM must remain aligned with the public, especially on matters of economic hardship. He vowed that the party would not hesitate to take to the streets if the government failed to fulfil its pledges.

“Nataka kuhakikishia Raila pahali yupo sahii, siku ya leo, gharama ya maisha ikienda juu, tutaenda maandamano wapende wasipende, Karo ya shule ikienda juu, bei za bidhaa zikienda juu, tutaenda maandamano,” he said.

The anniversary celebration, while festive, made one thing unmistakably clear: ODM is entering a critical period of introspection. As leaders navigate the legacy of Raila Odinga and the complexities of their involvement in the broad-based government, questions about succession, ideological direction and internal cohesion are becoming increasingly urgent.

Whether the party will maintain unity, redefine its identity through a National Delegates Conference, or reposition itself ahead of 2027 remains a central political storyline to watch in the coming months.

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