Bayelsa State: Report on Emerging Trends in the Nov.11, Governorship Election

The Niger Delta Integrity Group has observed with dismay some of the emerging trends in the upcoming November 11, 2023 governorship elections.

SECURITY: As the electioneering campaigns get to the finishing line, there are more cases of hostility, rascality and violence on the part of the Peoples Democratic Party in the State. More and more, APC supporters are being threatened, attacked and man handled. This includes the wanton tearing of their banners and posters. The prosperity government is manifesting traits of intolerance and political bigotry.Governor Douye Diri, who is the generalissimo, has suspended many traditional rulers for receiving APC candidates. The King of Otuokpoti was dethroned on trumped up charges, King Araka of the Opokuma Clan was suspended for telling the truth that he was paid a monthly stipend of twenty-eight thousand naira. The King of Agoro in Ekeremor LGA suffered a similar fate because of youth activities for which he informed the State governor. More troubling is the fact that Creek Haven has activated all the State-controlled security apparatti, some of who act as agents in the wards and polling units. Three of these agencies are fully engaged in activities verging on violence. They include: The Doo-Akpo Security Outfit, thevBayelsa Volunteers, and the Bayelsa Community, Safety and Security Corps. Until the Inspector General of Police  puts these state-sponsored security outfits in check, the prospect of peaceful and violence-free elections shall remain a pipe-dream.

REPRESSION OF THE PRESS. Although, Governor Douye Diri is not a press friendly governor, activities of repression of the press including social media influencers is becoming more dangerous and frequent. On a daily basis, APC social media persons are threatened. More often than not, their gadgets are stolen and attacks against them are getting more now frequent and vicious.  On campaign grounds, APC supporters are often molested. Prominent among this anti-press posturing is the arrest and detention of one blogger Mr. Mienpamo Saint Onitsha, who is an indispensable member of the media committee. The tactic has put fear into the minds of APC followers. I

INTIMIDATION OF CIVIL SERVANTS: : Payment of entitlements is now tied to political support. Permanent Secretaries and Commissioners now make it mandatory for civil servants to show their PVC’s and sign secret oaths of allegiance to the PDP. This practice not only violates the impartiality of the civil service but a desecratio of the sacrality of the public service rules.

THE CREEPING PHEMOMENON OF VOTE BUYING: We interviewed some persons in Ekeremor, Nembe, Sagbama and KoloKuma/Opokuma LGAs, who revealed that the PDP is desperate to win the governorship election. Accordingly, the PDP has been paying the electorate who have PVCs the sum of ₦5000 per week, while party agents (17) in each polling unit are paid ₦20,000 per person each week. The integrity Group describes this is as advanced vote buying, which is likely to jeopardize the integrity of the election. Our post-election survey shows that this unholy practice is rampant in all the Local Government Areas, and the rural populace is most vulnerable. It is a clear case of weaponizing poverty in a state where 88.5% of the people are poor.

WEAPONIZATION OF POVERTY:  The National Bureau of Statistics reported in early 2023 that Bayelsa State is the second poorest State  in Nigeria. This is Inspite of the stupendous amount of money accruring to the State. As a strategy to win the Nov. 11, 2023 governorship election, government has decided to give two appointments per polling unit in order to curry their support and loyalty. This practice is compromising the electorate across the State.

PROLIFERATION OF LIGHT WEAPONS:  There are unconfirmed reports of government using some ex-agitators in Delta and Rivers States to procure arms and ammunitions to disrupt free and fair election in some LGAs where the PDP does not have a strong showing. The Niger Delta Integrity Group calls for a thorough investigation by the security agencies.

GENERAL COMMENTS

Bayelsa State is relatively small in population. There are 105 wards in Bayelsa State, with 2,244 polling units spread across the eight LGAs of the State. It is essential to note that in the 2019 governorship election, the PDP won in only two LGAs, while the APC won in sic LGAs with a very wide margin (PDP: 143, 172 or 28.66%, APC: 352, 552 or 70.57%). Because of the organic nature of political followership, this trend may not change drastically in 2023. What is uppermost in the minds of the electorate is that the party in power may deploy preponderant violence to gain more votes. Even so, the organic followerships of the APC may help to sustain a winning majority at the elections,The permutation therefore is that in a free, fair and credible election, the APC may still win the governorship election inspite of the power of incumbency of the ruling PDP in the State. 

However, there is a noticeable increase in the followership of PDP in Yenagoa LGA, especially after the PDP distributed wrappers to  traders. PDPs position may be stronger now than it was in 2019. On the contrary, the APC appears to have taken over 90% control of Southern Ijaw LGA. The APC has also maintained a strong showing in Kolokuma/Opokuma, thereby balancing out the little gains in the Ogbolomabin axis of Nembe where the APC held away in 2019. Verily, the non-indigene population in Sagbawa, Yenagoa, Ogbia and other LGA around Yenagoa Metropolis may vote in favour of APC. The reasons are that the prosperity administration has kept Yenagoa in darkness, making businesses to depend on generators, with exorbitant cost of PMS. Besides, most business owners in Yenagoa are fleeing the city because of several bouts of kidnapping and ransom paying. Infact the two critical challenges that would work against the Diri’s electoral success are poor power supply and insecurity. It is understandable why most businesses in Yenagoa have relocated to other cities. Already the APC has taken advantage of this weakness in the prosperity administration. 

So many urban dwellers are also angry with the PDP for hoarding flood palliatives and personalizing the subsidy palliatives, which was meant to be distributed to mitigate the hardhip of fuel subsidy removal. It also appears that more women will vote on election day because of increasing sensitization. Again, the APC Women wing seems to be more in touch with the grassroots women. 

Yenagoa is harassed by poor power supply, insecurity and run-down infrastructure. With all these governance issues, things do not look really good for the ruling PDP in the State.The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC should deploy more personnel to observe, monitor and surpervise the elections. INEC should also deploy the BVAS machine to transmit results timeously to avoid ambiguity. There is a need to strengthen its ICT capability and deploy competent social media infrastructure for live coverage of the election. Everything should be deployed to ensure a free, fair and credible election in Bayelsa State come November 11, 2023.

Dr. John Idumange

Deputy President

Niger Delta Integrity Group, NDIG, 

31st, October, 2023.