What changes for India after the US midterms
A Democratic win may be a rebuke to the Trump administration, but it offers no guarantee of tangible gains for New Delhi Read Full Article at RT.com
A Democratic win may be a rebuke to the Trump administration, but it offers no guarantee of tangible gains for New Delhi
US voters have given Democrats control of the Senate and Congress in a rebuke to the administration of President Donald Trump. The outcome portends policy uncertainty and deadlock in Washington for the remaining half of Trump’s term.
For India, what comes next is a mixed bag, at best. The Trump administration’s outlook on many issues can be expected to remain unchanged, but some future legislation may be more accommodating of India’s interests, especially those related to immigration.
Uncertainty will continue to cloud matters related to trade and tariffs, given Trump’s penchant to be aggressive when on rough political terrain. Here’s a look at some of the key issues in India-US relations and how the outcome of the midterms could impact them.
Implications for the India-US trade deal
The US president can strike trade deals and offer some commitments to trading partners. Trump can be expected to take the executive order route for this.
However, powers to regulate as well as impose tariffs rest with Congress. If a trade deal with India that the two countries have been negotiating for months involves changes to US statutes, Congress will come into play.
The Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) was the traditional route for securing speedy congressional approval of trade pacts. The authorization of the TPA, which allowed Congress to frame negotiating objectives and expedite legislation, expired in 2021. The administration now lacks access to that fast-track process.
If the India-US trade pact were to move beyond tariff adjustments to commitments beyond what the administration can make, Congress will have to be brought on board. Depending on the fine print of a deal, that process could be time-consuming.
Trump could still use Russia sanctions law’s powers
The Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act gives the president sweeping powers to slap tariffs of up to 100% on countries that continue purchasing Russian crude oil or natural gas. That includes India, though Trump invoked the national interest to waive off the penalties for now.
He could still use the law as a bargaining tool to extract trade concessions from New Delhi, which continues to be one of the top buyers of Russian oil.
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