The Hormuz Chokepoint: How the Middle East crisis is redrawing Africa’s energy map

UGO AMADI

As of early April 2026, the global energy market is grappling with a “system without modern precedent” following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. While the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran centers on a 33-kilometer-wide channel thousands of miles away, the “economic shrapnel” is hitting African nations with devastating precision, triggering record fuel price hikes and threatening to cut continental growth by up to 1.5%.

The Chokepoint at a Standstill

The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy artery, typically handling 20–25% of global seaborne oil and nearly 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since the escalation of hostilities on February 28, 2026, maritime activity has collapsed:

Traffic Collapse: Daily ship transits plummeted from an average of 130 in February to just single digits in March—a 95% decline. Approximately 13–15 million barrels of crude oil per day are currently stranded or disrupted. Brent crude has surged past $100 per barrel, acting as a “sudden tax on income” for fuel-importing nations.

Africa’s Triple Vulnerability

The impact on Africa is not uniform but manifests through three primary channels: energy security, food stability, and fiscal health.

The Energy Crunch and “Fuel Droughts”: Roughly 40 out of 54 African countries rely heavily on imported hydrocarbons. In nations like South Africa, which imported 69% of its oil and diesel from Gulf states in 2024, the blockade poses an “enormous threat” to industrial stability.

Ethiopia & Kenya: Both nations are experiencing “fuel droughts,” with stations running dry and governments urging “rational” fuel use.

Nigeria: Despite being an oil producer, Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector has seen petrol prices spike to N1,245 per litre, eroding consumer purchasing power.

The Fertilizer-Food Nexus: The crisis has uniquely linked energy markets to food systems. The Gulf region is a hub for global fertilizer production (urea and ammonia), which requires natural gas.

Planting Season Risk: Disruptions are hitting during the crucial March-to-May planting season, raising costs for smallholder farmers and threatening long-term food security across the continent.

A Shift Toward Sovereignty?

Amid the turmoil, some nations are attempting to turn vulnerability into strategic strength. Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery has emerged as a rare stabilizer, ramping up exports to nearly 500,000 tons of refined products in March to shore up regional supply. European buyers have even begun sourcing jet fuel from the facility to bridge gaps left by the Middle East.

This “geopolitical shock” serves as a stark reminder for the continent: the era of extraction-based development without domestic refining and storage capacity is increasingly untenable in a volatile world.

Fiscal and Debt Strain:

 The African Development Bank (AfDB) warns that a prolonged conflict exceeding six months could weaken growth by 1.5%. At least 29 African countries have recorded currency depreciation due to inflationary pressures.

With public debt reaching $1.9 trillion in 2024, rising interest rates—aimed at taming inflation—threaten to push more nations into debt distress.

However, the global economic environment has become increasingly volatile with rising frequency of major shocks worldwide. Amid spikes in energy, food and fertilizer prices caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the African Development Bank (AfDB) , the African Union Commission (AUC) the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) outline practical recommendations for crisis responses and resilience building in African countries.

On the margins of the 58th Session of the Economic Commission for Africa in Tangier, the principals of the four institutions discussed the implications of the conflict on African economies and highlighted the key findings and recommendations of the forthcoming report.

“Continued escalation of the conflict worsens global instability, with serious implications for energy markets, food security, and economic resilience, particularly in Africa where economic pressures remain acute” H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the African Union Commission.

The report highlights that the current shocks are transmitting faster and through more concentrated channels than past global disruptions, leaving African economies with little time to adjust. Its effects are already affecting African economies and households, requiring rapid effective policy action.

Global oil prices have already surged by more than 50 percent as of late March. Twenty-nine currencies in Africa have weakened, raising the cost of servicing external debt and importing food, fuel, and fertilizer. Disruptions linked to Gulf energy supplies limit access to ammonia and urea during the critical March–May planting season. This will affect agricultural production, compounding risks of crisis and emergency levels of food insecurity, especially for low‑income households and import‑dependent economies.

A Test and a Turning Point

“Africa has been hit by too many external shocks not of its making,” said Claver Gatete, UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa “This moment calls for decisive action, to protect people now, but also to accelerate Africa’s long‑term push towards energy security, food sovereignty, and financial self‑reliance. Crises like this reinforce why Africa must finance more of its own future and strengthen regional solutions that build resilience before the next shock hits.”

“This moment demands leadership, within Africa and from its partners,” stressed Ahunna Eziakonwa, UN Assistant Secretary‑General and Director of UNDP’s Regional Bureau for Africa. “With the right mix of policy choices, financing tools, and political resolve, Africa can weather this shock and emerge more resilient, more self-reliant, and better positioned to shape its own economic future.”

The Brief calls for coordinated action across three horizons:

Immediate crisis response measures to cushion households and stabilize fuel, food, and fertilizer supply by African governments and supported by development partners and the private sector.

Medium‑term reforms to strengthen energy security, targeted social protection, and regional trade under the AfCFTA

Long‑term structural reforms towards stronger domestic resource mobilization and African financial safety nets, including accelerated implementation of the African Financing Stability Mechanism

“As global crises multiply, Africa’s response must evolve from managing shocks to fostering resilience,” emphasized Sidi Ould Tah, President of the African Development Bank Group. “African institutions and development partners need to act swiftly and in concert, leveraging their comparative advantages to cushion short-term shocks while laying the foundations for long-term resilience.”

By strengthening regional integration, accelerating African-led financial solutions, and investing decisively in energy, food, and trade resilience, the continent can move from vulnerability to preparedness.

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