Nigeria-China trade hits $18bn in H1 2026, but the real test is what Nigeria exports

Nigeria’s trade with China reached $18 billion in the first half of 2026, up 35% from the same period last year, but the headline figure masks a trade relationship still heavily tilted towards Chinese exports.

Nigerian exports to China rose 80% during the period, according to figures cited by government and Chinese diplomatic officials. But available trade data puts Nigeria’s exports at about $2.3 billion, compared with roughly $15.7 billion in imports from China.

That would leave Nigeria with a trade deficit of about $13.4 billion in the first six months of the year.

The numbers raise a more important question than whether trade between both countries is growing: is Nigeria capturing enough economic value from its relationship with China?

Nigeria is trading more, but the imbalance remains

The $18 billion figure represents total bilateral merchandise trade between Nigeria and China.

Joseph Tegbe, Nigeria’s Minister of Power, said bilateral trade had reached $18 billion in the first half of 2026, compared with $28 billion for the whole of 2025.

Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria Yu Dunhai also cited a 35% increase in bilateral trade and an 80% increase in Nigerian exports during the period as evidence of the potential for deeper economic cooperation.

The export growth is significant, but the starting point matters.

An 80% increase from a relatively small base still leaves Nigerian exports far below the value of goods entering the country from China.

Based on the available trade data, Nigeria exported about $2.3 billion worth of goods to China in H1 2026 while importing roughly $15.7 billion.

In other words, more trade does not necessarily mean a more balanced trade relationship.

What Nigeria sells to China

The composition of the trade is where the imbalance becomes more revealing.

Nigeria’s exports to China remain concentrated around commodities, including petroleum gas, crude oil and mineral products such as tin ores.

China, meanwhile, supplies Nigeria with a much broader range of manufactured and industrial products, including batteries, fabrics and semiconductor devices.

This matters because the economic value of trade is not determined only by how much changes hands.

It is also determined by what a country produces, how much value it adds before exporting, and how much of that value is retained domestically.

If Nigeria primarily exports raw materials while importing finished or higher-value manufactured products, increasing the volume of trade can leave the underlying structural weakness largely unchanged.

That is the problem Nigeria has to solve.

China is opening its market, but access is only the first step

Recent developments suggest both governments are trying to create more opportunities for Nigerian products to enter China.

One example is the Nigeria-China Aquatic Products Protocol signed in August, which provides eligible Nigerian aquatic products with zero-tariff access to the Chinese market.

On paper, that creates a significant opportunity.

China’s enormous consumer market could provide Nigerian businesses with a much larger destination for agricultural and aquatic exports.

But removing tariffs does not automatically make a Nigerian product export-ready.

Businesses still have to meet Chinese requirements around quality, processing, packaging, certification and phytosanitary compliance. They also need reliable cold-chain and logistics infrastructure where the product requires it.

That means the opportunity created by the protocol will depend partly on what happens inside Nigeria before the goods reach the Chinese border.

The opportunity is bigger than exporting more raw products

For Nigerian businesses, the more interesting opportunity may therefore be what happens between production and export.

Instead of simply shipping more raw or minimally processed products to China, Nigerian companies could use access to the market to justify investment in processing, packaging, storage and other parts of the value chain.

That would allow more of the economic activity associated with exports to happen in Nigeria.

It could also create demand for local suppliers, logistics companies, manufacturers and service businesses supporting export production.

The challenge is capital.

Building processing facilities and meeting international export standards requires investment that many small Nigerian businesses cannot easily provide on their own.

This is where the broader Nigeria-China relationship could become important.

If deeper bilateral cooperation brings Chinese manufacturing and industrial investment into Nigeria, it could help create some of the infrastructure needed to move from commodity exports towards more value-added production.

But that outcome is not automatic either. Investment that simply extracts Nigerian resources without building domestic productive capacity would do little to solve the underlying problem.

The $18 billion number is only part of the story

Nigeria’s growing trade with China is not inherently a bad thing.

China is one of the world’s largest manufacturing economies, and access to Chinese machinery, technology, equipment and consumer products can support businesses and economic activity in Nigeria.

The issue is whether Nigeria can gradually strengthen its position within the relationship.

The 80% increase in Nigerian exports suggests there is movement in that direction.

But the much larger value of imports shows how far the country still has to go.

The real economic opportunity is therefore not simply to push bilateral trade above $18 billion, or even to celebrate another record year.

It is to increase the share of that trade that represents Nigerian production, Nigerian processing and Nigerian-owned value creation.

The new access for aquatic products offers a useful test.

If Nigerian businesses use it to export more raw products, the trade relationship will grow.

If they use it to build processing businesses, attract investment, create jobs and move higher-value products into the Chinese market, the relationship could become more valuable to Nigeria.

For Nigeria, the next milestone should not simply be more trade with China. It should be more value captured from that trade.